Trying to figure out why I'm stalled out

It might not look like I'm stalled out with weight loss as every day I've dropped about 6 ounces a day for the past week, but I'm repeating the same month as last month - almost exactly. I have 3-4 more days until this menstrual cycle is over (remember I only lose weight in the 10 days before menstruation begins) and then I'll slowly gain or hold steady for 12 days or so and then gain 3-6 pounds with ovulation, hold that for a few days and then drop that 3-6 pounds and if all goes well, a bit more for true weight loss for the month.

So, today is April 13th. Remember on April 1st, when I did measurements and they came back as no change at all from last month that I predicted that this month would be a bust for weight loss. I was also going sky high on the scale for ovulation this month as my ovulation weight gain was added to 3 days of eating more carbs with a slice of cake on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd of April.

I didn't take that no measurement change thing to ease up. If anything it made me push harder. I've added time at the gym. Started c25k and so on. Besides those three days of eating around 2000 calories a day (maintenance level), I've eaten around 1500-1550 a day otherwise. According to my gizmo, the BodyMedia Fit thingee, I should have lost 4.5 pounds this past month. So far I've seen a .2 net gain (I still have 2-3 days to lose for this menstrual cycle, but I won't see 4 more pounds disappear!).

This is the very first month that I can see no reason why I didn't lose some weight. I even checked my food intake more accurately by weighing foods, measuring out with a spoon to be sure I wasn't under estimating my caloric intake, and I haven't been. So what is the deal?

Does it mean I'll see a big whoosh next month? If so, why haven't I lose any partial inches at least with the tape measure? A standstill and I don't know why!

Maybe it's that I made room for a couple easter chocolates in my daily calories? (still kept within the 1500 calorie limit). Maybe it's because I upped workouts and my body is holding more water because of it? Maybe my metabolism is truly SLOW and I can't lose any more with what I eat and what I do? Perhaps I just need to accept 2 pounds a month at the most for weight loss from now on out? That I'm so close to being an ideal weight that losing any faster than that is unrealistic? (I can hardly imagine that as I still have a lot of fat).

I'm puzzled - truly.

Stats for 4/13/12:

Highest weight: 275  Now: 168.2 (.2 above my all time low. I 'could' have a new all time low tomorrow)