How accurate are gizmos for counting calories and predicting weight loss?

I'm going to keep checking on this as I go, month by month, but my impression is, they are wildly inaccurate. So far, I have been tracking my daily caloric intake on Mynetdiary (though I don't always include my exercise for the day, so if anything, they will be under counting how much of a caloric deficit I have). And I track my activity and enter my caloric intake on bodymedia fit for the gizmo, bodymedia fit core.

I don't have records for a full month yet as I was only sporadically counting calories at the end of the day in mid-April and didn't start wearing my gizmo full time until the end of April as I needed to larger armband, but they do figure in averages of what they "think" I would burn in a day (bodymedia), or exclude those days for figuring (mynetdiary).

What both come up with is that I'm burning "around" 1200-1250 extra calories a day more than I am actually consuming.

Here is the info from Mynetdiary which does weekly reports (as always click on the picture/chart to make larger):

I don't have any data for the first week, but let's "say" it's a 1200 average daily deficit, which is about right as I was on target every day - even the day I went to the baby shower and had a piece of cake, I ate within the normal calorie limit for the day. So, week one is 1200, week two is 1179, week three is 1285 and week four is 1255. that equals a four week average daily caloric deficit of 1230.

Now let's look at bodymedia fit's info for the last 21 days:

This information has all my sleep, step count and entered calories eaten for most of the 3 week period. I didn't wear the gizmo the first few days as I was waiting for the larger arm band. So, for the first 5 days, it's giving me less activity time than I usually do, so again, if anything, it's under counting caloric deficit for that time period.  So, according to this report, I am burning an extra 1239 calories a day.

One calculator says 1230, another says 1239. That's pretty close. So, let's take the average of those two and that makes it 1235. What does that then translate into a prediction of weight lost during that time? Well, 1243 times 28 days equals 34,580 calories. Divide that by 3500 (which is the number of calories in a pound) and that gives you losing 9.88 pounds in 28 days, or 10.5 pounds in a month (30 days).

Of course, it's not that simple. Even notice how a pound equals 3500 calories is a bit too precise? Well, it isn't 3500 calories precisely, of course and it's difficult to find the 'real' numbers. There are several things that talk about it, but what you learn is that the 3500 is an estimation.  Here is this from http://www.zoeharcombe.com/the-knowledge/1lb-does-not-equal-3500-calories/:

1lb does not equal 3,500 calories

One of the most commonly held diet myths is “To lose one pound of fat you need to create a deficit of 3,500 calories”. This is wrong at every level. First of all, one pound does not equal 3,500 calories. You will see this formula in government literature, in just about every diet book, in private health booklets and all over the internet. The next time you see it, or hear it, ask where it comes from. You will not get an answer. (I asked the following seven UK organisations: the National Health Service (NHS); the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE); the Department of Health; the National Obesity Forum; the Association for the Study of Obesity; the British Dietetic Association and Dieticians in Obesity Management and five of these have no idea where it even comes from. The two that tried to prove it failed by a factor of about ten.)
The first part of the calorie formula is the assertion that one pound of fat contains 3,500 calories. You will struggle to find anyone who can demonstrate the precise calculation behind this, so I’ll offer this as a suggestion:
1)    One pound equals 454 grams (decimal places aside, this is a fact);
2)    Fat has nine calories per gram (this is the universally accepted conversion, but it is an estimate and significantly rounded down from even the original estimate);
3)    Human fat tissue is approximately 87% lipid (this is a widely accepted conversion, but it is also an estimate).
Putting these together, we can derive the sum that 454 grams of body fat tissue has approximately the calorific energy of 395 grams of pure fat (454 grams x 87%), that is 3,555 calories (395 grams x 9).
3,555 is close enough to 3,500 you may think, until you see the absurdity of how precisely the formula is applied. According to those who believe this formula, this difference of 55 calories (in this case from the calculation being approximate) would make five to six pounds difference a year. The National Obesity Forum web site states “one less (sic) 50 calorie plain biscuit per day could help you lose 5lbs (2.3kg) in a year – and one extra biscuit means you could gain that in a year!” (Ref 2) No it won’t. I can’t even get an estimate of the formula to closer than 55 calories ‘out’. Even if the 3,555 were correct (and it isn’t), this would mean we all need a 55 calorie biscuit, no fewer, every day or we will be five pounds lighter in a year anyway. Every person who didn’t have that biscuit every day should have lost 141 pounds over the past 25 years.
With little effort I can find evidence in obesity journals that fat has anywhere between 8.7 and 9.5 calories per gram. The same (1911) obesity journal that says that human fat tissue can be 87% lipid also says that it may be 72% lipid.
Taking the extremes of these, we can establish a range whereby one pound of fat could contain anywhere between 2,843 and 3,752 calories. Given that it is currently held that one pound is 3,500 calories we could (according to this formula) inadvertently gain six stone every year at the low end of the calculation and lose almost two stone in the same year if one pound is 3,752 calories. Don’t worry about any of this – because the formula doesn’t hold at any other level either.

But there is even more. Heavier people lose more weight and more quickly. I think everyone has either witnessed it or experienced it. Weight loss slows as you go along. And why is that? Well, there's lots of reasons and I wont detail them all. 

1. Your metabolism slows as you go along and your body adapts to this new caloric deficit
2. Some people get more lax with their plan as they progress as they get more satisfied with how they look and/or feel. Or perhaps even find it more difficult to stick to the plan with sustained lower calorie diets.
3. You burn less calories as you get thinner because it takes less calories to move a thinner body.
4. And more...

In my last foray with weight loss I lost about 8-9 pounds per month the first few months and then it dropped little by little. By the end, I was happy to see a 3 pound loss for the month and I was working WAY harder to see that 3 pound loss too. The gizmos do change their formula a bit as you get thinner and a bit when you get older, but not enough usually as they don't figure in how long you've been at the diet - so they don't figure in any metabolic slow down you might have experienced - which ISN'T huge I want to say. You do not slow it down by more than 10% and it will usually recover when you've been maintaining for awhile.

So, back to what these gizmos predicted for me to lose and that was with under counting my activity level for both the mynetdiay calculator and the bodymedia fit calculator. According to them I should have lost 10.5 pounds in the last month. What I actually lost was exactly 9 pounds. Now, I think that is really, really good, but what if I had actually added in all my activity? It probably would say I should have lost 11.5 pounds for the month. That's a 20% inaccuracy!


But even all this that I have laid out is still inaccurate. I didn't lose just fat, but also lean mass and water. I didn't burn precisely 3500 calories to lose each pound and each of my meals were not those exact calories either. My fuji apple could have been anywhere between 90-150 calories, that piece of pork could have had more or less fat on it than an average piece and so on. These are ALLLLL estimates, but I wanted to get a baseline to show how it looks "now" and how it will compare to future months when everything slows down, yet the gizmos will keep telling me I "should" be losing at a much faster rate.

Even though I know the gizmos are highly inaccurate, I still find them fun and motivational and anything that keeps me on target for longer is good! I won't get discouraged when it tells me I should have lost 8 pounds and only lost 3 in a month when I get close to goal. I promise?

An unexpected super long walk and trying to get my gizmos to be friendly

After our torrential downpours, so much so that they make the national news, I needed to get out and about. So much of the year is either too hot or too cold to enjoy walks, so I want to get in as many in nice weather as possible.

Last night I took a couple of walks, for about 3 miles total for the day. I first walked to and fro to get my son from school, but in the evening I decided to walk to a nearby intersection to investivate these trees that I have been trying to figure out what they are since we moved here 4.5 years ago. And I'm happy to say with a closer look, I know what they are -  Canada Red Chokeberry trees.

Of course, I found other interesting specimens along the way too. It was a very enjoyable walk for me. However, it was not so nice of a walk for my husband. I don't have allergies. My husband does, but they are moderate and recently developed. What that means is that sometimes he forgets to take his allergy medicine - like last night. So, we took this lovely walk (and it was lovely) and about 15 minutes after we got home my husband was a sneezing, sniffling, teary eyed mess. Oops! Some visine and an hour later with some allergy medicine he felt better, but I realized until these pollens dissipate, he's probably not going to go out that much for walks.

Still need to figure out what these pretties are.  No clue: Anyone?

So, after yesterday's fiasco with the allergies, I decided I needed to take walks by myself for now. I decided to take a walk to my son's school and then a big, long loop. I've taken this walk several times, but it hasn't been since last summer that I took the full loop. Sometimes I've just walked up and back down the same street. it would be about 4 miles.

And I thought I was smart for this walk. I had all my gizmos at the ready. I was wearing my Garmin heart rate monitor and watch. I had on my bodymedia Fit gizmo that counts steps and activity level. And I had my phone so that I could listen to the radio via headphones. Off I went.

The walk was very pleasant, but I was beginning to get tired of the radio. Only when I 'thought' I was getting close to home did I realize I should have listened to a podcast instead of a re-airing of what I had already heard in the morning (NPR, WAMU). But, since I was "almost home" I decided to just stick with the radio.

The turnoff to cut across a parking lot didn't come up though. I was surprised at how far it was. Well, only when I got in front of the golf course fancy house did I realize that I was WAY off course. I had walked almost a mile out of my way and the only way back was to turn right around and go back the same way I came. Ugh!  I was tired and thirsty! I hadn't had breakfast and only a small glass of water in the morning! Now I knew I had at least 2 miles to walk or more to get home. UGH!!!!

Here was my route and 'detour'. Thank goodness it was such a lovely day. In the end, I walked about 6 miles. I'll tack on another almost mile this afternoon when I pick my son up from school.

What irked me was that my Garmin Gizmo wasn't working properly and then I accidentally locked all the keys. I googled how to unlock them quickly when I was outside my son's school, but that didn't work. The entire walk it was pausing and resuming as it thought I was stopping anytime I slowed down. And not surprising as I can see now that it thought I was cross country skiing! And, I can't find the devise to connect it to my computer. I put it somewhere to be 'safe' and I have no idea where that is.

So, that was useless today - a very expensive useless toy.

Then, I tried to pair my scale/core band/blood pressure monitor. Yes, not so easy. They pair, but not completely. I can see "most" everything (after some work and googling) the phone with BodyMedia Fit and Withings. Not on the ipad and not on the Mac. I can tie MyNetDiary (where I track food) with Withings, but only that withings scale will report directly to MyNetDiary, not that any of the food stuff will go to Withings.  And while Withings connect to both my gizmos (and I think the Garmin watch too), the two other one won't speak to each other - MyNetDiary to BodyMedia Fit. As, probably, they are in competition with each other for food databases. Ugh.

In the end, I sort of got it to work and asked a question at Withings for details. We'll see.

This is what I see on my iphone for Withings:

My iPad:

My Mac:

See? Three different things and supposedly all the same "app". uh-huh. Only the iphone has the info about my sleep and activity (and an hour of sleep was 'cut off' as the thingee cut out - as it does sometimes, so I got about 6 hours and 11 minutes of sleep, not 5.

And yes, the scale went up today - go figure. Might be that I had a salty dinner. Or it might be that I'm gearing up for ovulation again... which would be the third month in a row after NOTHING for 3 months. Probably the thyroid coming back in line.

After my walk I spent over an hour just trying to figure out how to get these things to talk with each other. What a time sink!

But... in other news, it's a beautiful day and some things in my yard are growing and I didn't think they would. First, the traditional lilacs are starting to bloom and smell divine. This is their 4th year and their FIRST blooms. There's only 3, but hey... it's blooming! (I also have a Korean Dwarf Lilac that will bloom a couple weeks later). AND, after two failed attempts, the rhubarb I planted last spring took hold and is growing - 2 bunches! YES!!!! Lastly, I found two kinds of bleeding hearts. The pink ones I've had for a couple years, but last year I found some white ones and they are doing great!

And how can I forget? The baby birds. Mommy laid 6 eggs. 4 hatched. They are 6 days old now. They two outer ones are facing to the wall. The two inner ones are facing out:

One month in and new gizmos!

Yep, it's been one month already and I can hardly believe it. It has been pretty smooth sailing and fairly straight forward so far. There were some expected blips in there - Easter, son's birthday, and a baby shower, but despite that I lost 8.6 pounds for the month according to my old Tanita IronMan scale.

It's funny how this month has just flown by. I haven't felt deprived. I haven't felt consumed with food thoughts - nothing. Yet for MONTHS before this I was nonstop thinking about "tomorrow I'll eat better". "Starting January 1st I'll get on track." "February 1st then." and so on. Yet, now that I am on track, it's easy. Starting to actually do it, took a slap in the face. I just couldn't force myself to just DO IT.

Also, as you may recall, I ordered a Withings Scale and a Withings blood pressure monitor and a larger band for my BodyMedia Fit gizmo that tracks sleep and steps/activity as well as track food (if I wanted to). I track my food elsewhere. Those were my mother's day presents to myself.

It took me forever to figure out how to use the apps today and well, they leave a bit to be desired. Like, I can't see how the Withings and BodyMedia sites really connect on my ipad. They do seem to on my iphone display much better, but since I hadn't worn my band for a few weeks, there's no new info, so it's a zero display.

For a record, I plugged in several weights into the Withings iPhone app so that I can see my starting point and where I've gone from there. I then took a blood pressure reading to add that to the chart and to keep track of.

The app on my ipad looks like this for a display(click to enlarge):

On my iPhone it looks like this below. You can see where the BodyMedia Fit will show it's info as soon as it's gathered it and been paired with it. (Sleep and Calories burned). Right now it's showing as zero as I haven't worn the gadget for 2 weeks. The weight lost is showing as 1.4 for the week as it's averaging the weight I 'probably' lost this week according to the data it has inputted so far.

So, that is that. My two scales were within .2 of a pound from each other too, so I couldn't be upset. Tanita had me at 233.0. Withings had me at 233.2. I didn't look at comparing body fat for both because really for now, it's still all about getting more fit, eating right and just having the trend go in the right direction.

Oh... and another note on pulse or BPM (beats per minute). The scale takes one while standing. That is never, ever the best measure as you all should know. That measure is taken while you are standing, have been walking around, etc. For that measure I got 89 as you can see above. Sure, that number should go down too with fitness level, but it is not a measure of a a resting heart rate. That one is better captured by the blood pressure monitor. And it was 64. As you can see here:

So April 1st was the start of eating right and getting on track. May 1st start the daily tracking of everything. Hopefully that downward trend will continue!

Amazed at how the scale can just hold still

Today is day 50,000 that the scale has read between 189.4 and 189.8. Ok, it's only day 13, but 13 days to be bouncing around the same half pound feels like 50,000 days. If my body is following it's usually ovulation rule (which I cannot rely on any more as I'm in perimenopause), it will be another 4-5 days of no losses and probably gains.

Now, if I really think about it, I'm lucky to not have seen any substantial gains as my body gears up for ovulation (which by calendar should be Monday - not that my body follows a calendar any more) as that means I must be working hard and eating right, I should see a gain Sunday and Monday for sure though if I do ovulate as I always spike up temporarily.

But, when I look at my eating and my exercise for the past 14 days, I should see a loss according to the gizmo I wear (and by past history of what it takes to lose).

Here is what my gizmo has to say for the last 14 days including today which is still blank. That only means my totals will look even better at the end of the day. I might update this chart this evening to reflect that. (remember to click on them to make them full size).

I didn't copy page four as all that shows is my weight change over the course of those 14 days and of which you would find nothing as I didn't record the minute up and down movements on the scale.

So, according to my gizmo, which doesn't even record accurately what I do for movement, I should have lost 3.2 pounds. And, it undercounts my activities. It doesn't count strength training almost at all (the low days you see on the chart were all strength days except the two Sundays where I don't work out). And it also only counts step aerobics as a moderate exercise, not vigorous. I've done that 5 times in the last two weeks and it is rigorous exercise. I didn't wear my heart rate monitor while doing it, but during the heart rate checks, where we actually slow down to be able to do the checks, the checks were both over 150. So, my heat was going up into the 155-160 range - that is vigorous for me! Last night, for example, it gave me only 5 minutes of vigorous activity when I actually was in the aerobic zone for at least 26 minutes (as I was watching the clock) - that does not count any warm-up or cool-down time. 

So, basically, I probably truly lost MORE than 3 pounds in the last two weeks, but the scale still says I haven't lost anything -yet. Man, even when it does show the losses on the scale eventually, it takes a lot to lose 4 pounds and is so easy to gain them!

All I can do for now though is to speculate and hope that it will show a 3-4 pound loss in a few days. Ugh... so hard to see the same weight on the scale day after day when you are working so hard on losing!

Break day and slow losing

And I have to admit, I really didn't want it to be a break day and if I didn't have so much to do, I would have enjoyed some time at the gym or outside. But, I teach on Sundays and drive in to do that. And I had dinner to deal with, dishes, etc.

Now that it's 9 pm, I'm fading big time. Like big time. So, maybe it's good that it was a rest day. I don't know.

Scale is staying the same and I wish I knew what that meant. According to my gizmo, I should be steadily losing. I know losses come in fits and starts, but we'll see when I'll see them. Hormones aren't helping me at all - this peri-menopause stuff is for the birds!

According to my gizmo, I "should" see a nearly 2 pounds lost for the week. So far nada. So... Pfft on that.  I know it will happen, it's just waiting for it to happen. But, the clothes are fitting better. I'm noticing I'm holding my stomach in as a natural state versus a forced state. So, it's moving in the right direction. It's just a slow, slow process.

You know, I "used" to say, "the weight didn't go in in 6 months, so it doesn't need to come off in 6 months." And that was true for me before as the weight came on slowly over years - little by little. However, my recent trends are the opposite.

My last experiences have been that I've put on 10-25 pounds in 1-2 months (with every time about 7 of it water weight) and it will take months and months to undo it. So, one month to put it on, 3 months to take it off, or in this last case, 2 months to put it on and about 5 months to take it off. So much for the "it went on slow, take it off slow". Even if it goes on fast, it still takes a long time to take it off.

But I will and I will get there this time and hopefully have a better time of maintaining those losses. I just can never lose sight of how harmful sugars/grains are to my body. I just can't handle them AND I can't handle prolonged sleep deprivation, which I'm always battling in this household with a night owl teen and night owl spouse.

So, my progress for the past week (according to my gizmo) is this (click to enlarge):

Not too bad when it counts in today which is a break day from exercise. But you can also see that I need more sleep. Less than 7 is not a good trend and it got worse and worse as the week went on.

With that, I think I will call it a day and head to bed and be thankful for no alarm clocks this Monday morning.